25 May A turning point, all eyes on China’s weapons
By,
Octavio Pérez, Senior Fellow, MSI²
In recent days, multiple news services, including Chinese and Taiwanese news sources, have written about the previous confrontation between Pakistan and India. Operation Sindoor was supposed to attack terrorist camps and accomplices, but it went a bit more than that, apart from the fact that they are both nuclear-armed neighbors. They kept the conflict at a conventional war level.
However, the event brought about the first-time use of several weapons systems in combat, which has gotten everyone’s attention, including Taiwan. When a weapon system is tested for the first time, all eyes hone in to see the results.
The last time the United States sold weapons to Pakistan was in 2006, and quickly thereafter, China filled the void. Although China had sold weapons to Pakistan since the mid-1960s, the surge started when the US stopped sales due to internal instability and its entrance into the Nuclear club. Today, China provides over 80% of its weapons systems.
The J-10C export model to Pakistan is a 4.5-generation multipurpose fighter interceptor similar to the F16 but with two canards behind the cockpit. It was brought in after March 2022. Officially, it was attributed two kills in combat; French-built Dassault Rafale F3R (a 4.5-generation aircraft). The other three kills have not been confirmed.
The PL-15 air-to-air missile was attributed with the two kills. Again, Mach 5 was achieved in Chinese fabrication with a range of just over 200 km. So, they are finally baptized in combat between the missile and the aircraft.
This marks the first time the Chinese planes and the PL-15 missiles have been used in combat anywhere in the world. This is the first time China has been able to assess the performance of its weapons system, even if it was not using its own armed forces. Remember, there are other factors in play. According to Pakistan, there were dog fights and more than 100 planes involved… and that it lasted over an hour. These missiles were fired at extended ranges with radar systems and electronic warfare integrated into satellite communications. The whole event is worth studying.
On the other hand, French equipment was on the receiving end. Today, Russia sells almost 36% of its weapons systems to India, and the US is coming back into the picture. More importantly, the Taiwanese government is also paying attention to the outcome.
Taiwan’s defense ministry-linked Institute of National Defense and Security Research has clearly stated that Xi Jinping has accelerated the modernization and expansion of China’s military, intending to be capable of an air and land invasion of Taiwan by 2027. This becomes another reaffirming factor, testing their weapons system in real combat. Needless to say, they possess newer-generation advanced fighters such as the J-15, J-16, and J-20, which are 4-5th-generation aircraft.
Although the theaters of operations are different—a land-based assault between the Army and Air Forces versus a Navy-Marines assault supported by the Air Force—there is still something to learn about evaluating other sensors (Radars, Jammers, satellite interphases) during hostilities.
Since then, all eyes have been on China and the apparent success of their aircraft and missiles. Bringing them to a level equal to other Western weapons design groups. China has not officially made comments or bragged about it. Still, China receives credit for the success, shares and stock values of the aviation development group went up, and it was accepted as a victory. While India, which has a numerical advantage in all aspects of war, went as far as to not only hit presumed terrorist sites but also attack in the Punjab, where the political center of the country is. By the second day, it went further. It attacked on the outskirts of Islamabad at the Nur Khan AFB in Rawalpindi, a signal to the country’s armed forces command center and close to the Command that protects its nuclear arsenal.
Having India surpass China in population and emerging as a Global counterbalance to China as an alternative manufacturing hub. Tesla will soon get its foothold in India, sending another signal to China that if things don’t change, there will be another alternative to the electric car mammoth, taking a significant portion of the existing manufacturing of not only the vehicles but also the batteries. China continues to build animosity with its neighbor, which has had border disputes since 2019 and ongoing through 2020-21. Both are projecting global influence, looking for raw materials, resources in Africa and the Indo-Pacific region.
India is now seeking to upgrade their aging Soviet era arsenal with US and French weapons systems. The demise of the Rafale could shift towards US weapons manufacturers. For some time, India was the largest arms importer (2017-2021) but quickly fell to second place after the start of the Ukrainian War. Most of these are coming from Russia. During this period, Chinese armament was sold worldwide, mainly characterized as a cheap alternative and effective, but not because they were at the technological edge.
A positive note on India’s corner was the use of its drones and missiles
On the defensive side, Pakistan’s Chinese-manufactured HQ-9 defense system did not provide adequate protection, which permitted India’s long-range (French-manufactured) Scalp missiles to penetrate Pakistan’s air defense systems.
Whereas on the defense, India’s S-400 defense system (Russia’s latest air defense system also sold to Algeria, Belarus, and China) proved to be an effective defense in the battle test, according to experts.
So, the valuable takeaways from this encounter were:
- Pakistan’s Chinese aircraft and missiles proved their effectiveness
- India’s S-400 Russian ADA systems did prove their worth
- India’s Scalp missiles (French Mfg) were also effective
- Pakistan’s Chinese HQ-9P HQ 16 did not provide adequate protection
- India’s (Harop drones) Israeli manufacturing managed to neutralize several Pakistani radar systems
So, both sides gained knowledge of their offensive and defensive systems and the areas of concern should another crisis arise.
What does Taiwan get out of this? Simply lessons learned. The Chinese have been patrolling the Taiwan Straits with J-10 in the last couple of years, but in their scope of threat, the air force will not be the primary focus of an engagement in the battle for Taiwan. At least three other newer-generation aircraft would possibly be used in the initial supporting attacks, so those would generate more attention.
India’s escalation to the point of firing at Rawalpindi, and specifically to the command that controls all nuclear forces storage, was a critical point that could have raised the fear of a nuclear exchange. Beijing, being compromised by selling arms to Pakistan, could not deflate the balloon or mediate with India, and it was the US that finally put its weight down and pulled it off.
India operates the Russian-made S-400 Triumf missile defense system and remains one of Russia’s largest arms buyers, though its government is expanding local production under the Make in India initiative.
The conflict poses a delicate balancing act for the United States. This has been the most serious class since 1999. Although most of the arsenal is dated (17-year-old aircraft and export variant missiles), it does help promote Chinese sales to the third world, which demands pricing and quality as well. For Taiwan, this is just another bit of information on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities.
References
France 24. (2025, May 14). Chinese weapons pass combat test in India-Pakistan clash with flying colors. https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250514-chinese-weapons-pass-combat-test-in-india-pakistan-clash-%E2%80%93-with-flying-colours
The Guardian. (2025, May 14). Pakistan’s use of J-10C jets and missiles exposes potency of Chinese weaponry. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/14/pakistans-use-of-j-10c-jets-and-missiles-exposes-potency-of-chinese-arms
Choi, S. H. (2025, May 14). Kashmir conflict: the Chinese warplanes and weapons used by Pakistan. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3310172/kashmir-conflict-chinese-warplanes-and-weapons-used-pakistan
Newsweek. (2025, May 10). India-Pakistan War: Chinese Weapons Get Combat Test. https://www.newsweek.com/india-pakistan-war-china-fighter-jets-missile-defenses-2070168
Indian Express. (2025, May 13). First time, India names China as supplier of missiles used by shows remnants. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/first-time-india-names-china-as-supplier-of-missiles-used-by-pak-shows-remnants-9999365/
The Economist. (2025, May 15). Chinese weapons gave Pakistan a new edge against India, America and its allies are now scrambling for details. https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/05/15/chinese-weapons-gave-pakistan-a-new-edge-against-india
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).