03 Jun The Evolving War Against Mexican Cartels: Leadership, Government Involvement, and International Implications
By,
Jose Adan Gutierrez, Senior Fellow, MSI²
I. Introduction: The war against Mexico’s powerful drug cartels entered a volatile new phase in 2025. With the Trump Administration’s designation of major cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), bilateral tensions have sharpened, and tactical approaches have shifted (White House Press Office, 2025).
However, behind the policy changes and military terminology lies a harrowing reality: tens of thousands of lives are being lost or destroyed every year. This analysis explores the current status of the conflict, cartel leadership, alleged political collusion, international responses, and—importantly—the devastating human toll on ordinary citizens in both Mexico and the United States.
II. Current Status of the War Against Cartels
Mexico remains one of the deadliest countries not officially at war (Human Rights Watch, 2024). Entire regions have fallen under de facto cartel rule, where families live in fear, extortion is normalized, and disappearances are routine. The recent discovery of a mass grave in Colima linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), containing the remains of 42 people, underscores the scale of this tragedy (Financial Times, 2025).
In the United States, the war’s effects are equally dire. According to the DEA’s National Drug Threat Assessment (2025), over 110,000 Americans died of drug overdoses in the past year, many tied to fentanyl and methamphetamines trafficked by Mexican cartels.
III. Leadership of Major Cartels
Sinaloa Cartel. Following Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s arrest, power shifted to his sons, particularly Ovidio Guzmán López, known collectively as “Los Chapitos” (The New York Times, 2024). The group now oversees vast trafficking networks, extortion operations, and illegal mining ventures. Public outrage grew after 17 relatives of Ovidio were allowed into the U.S. under a secret intelligence deal (CBS News, 2025).
CJNG. Under the leadership of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho,” CJNG has carried out mass killings and public mutilations to intimidate communities (Insight Crime, 2025).
Cartel del Noreste. Operating primarily in Tamaulipas and Nuevo León, CDN uses fear and forced recruitment, leaving civilians under siege from both cartels and complicit local authorities (Insight Crime, 2025).
IV. Government Collusion and Fear
Allegations of cartel-government collusion are longstanding. A 2024 ProPublica investigation revealed that drug traffickers may have funneled millions into Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s 2018 presidential campaign (ProPublica, 2024). Though legally unproven, the implications erode public trust and reinforce perceptions of institutional impunity.
Municipal police face deadly pressure. Over 400 officers were killed across Mexico in 2024 alone (Los Angeles Times, 2024), a symptom of endemic corruption and the brutal reality of noncompliance.
V. Impact of U.S. Designation of Cartels as Terrorist Organizations
The 2025 designation of several Mexican cartels as FTOs by the Trump Administration (White House Press Office, 2025) allowed the U.S. to use expanded tools: sanctions, surveillance, and intelligence operations. However, this also militarizes the conflict and raises the risk of collateral damage, including drone strikes and paramilitary raids, heightening fear in border communities (NPR, 2025).
Despite raised awareness, synthetic drug flows remain unabated. Fentanyl continues to cross into the U.S. via complex trafficking networks, and overdose deaths continue to rise (Washington Post, 2024).
VI. Cartel Reactions and Adaptations
Cartels are evolving. The Sinaloa Cartel is now active in tourist hubs like Cancún and Tulum, laundering profits through hospitality industries (Insight Crime, 2025). CJNG is expanding into Central America and U.S. entry points, adapting to security crackdowns by fragmenting into smaller, harder-to-trace factions (CSIS, 2025).
These changes intensify the violence. Internal power struggles and forced displacements are now common, and entire communities are destabilized (Human Rights Watch, 2024).
VII. Mexico’s Support for U.S. Efforts
President Claudia Sheinbaum has increased cooperation, including the extradition of nearly 30 cartel leaders (Reuters, 2025). However, she remains opposed to direct U.S. military intervention, emphasizing Mexican sovereignty: “This is a Mexican problem with a shared U.S. responsibility” (NPR, 2025).
American frustrations persist, as systemic reforms within Mexico remain slow and limited by internal politics (Brookings Institution, 2023).
VIII. AMLO’s Suspected Ties and Current Whereabouts
AMLO remains an enigmatic figure post-presidency. Though he denies cartel ties, evidence suggests traffickers may have counted on leniency from his government (ProPublica, 2024). His “hugs, not bullets” approach is now widely criticized for allowing cartel power to grow unchecked.
Rumors suggest he maintains influence from the shadows, allegedly meeting with President Sheinbaum in undisclosed locations. While unconfirmed, these suspicions persist in the public sphere and media commentary.
IX. Potential Outcomes of Current Strategies
1. Escalation of Conflict: Further U.S. action may splinter cartels, igniting turf wars and increasing civilian casualties (CSIS, 2025).
2. Reform and Cooperation: A unified bilateral strategy that pairs enforcement with social reform may help dismantle cartel power (Brookings Institution, 2023).
3. Cartel Entrenchment: Inaction could lead to the institutionalization of cartel power, making them de facto shadow governments.
X. Drug Trafficking Trends and Economic Impacts
DEA data shows no drop in fentanyl or methamphetamine inflows (DEA, 2025). Seizures have increased, but production remains high, and prices have only been marginally affected. Drugs remain accessible, especially in rural America (UNODC, 2023).
In both countries, families are devastated. American ERs are overwhelmed, while Mexican victims are often buried in unmarked graves or mourned in silence (Human Rights Watch, 2024; Washington Post, 2024).
XI. The Case of Cartel Family Members Entering the U.S.
The quiet entrance of Ovidio Guzmán López’s relatives under a U.S. intelligence deal (CBS News, 2025) has drawn criticism. This apparent double standard—granting safe passage to cartel elites while ordinary citizens suffer—risks legitimizing cartel power and undermining the moral authority of anti-cartel operations.
XII. Mexico’s Judicial Reform and the Erosion of Judicial Independence
In June 2025, Mexico conducted its first nationwide judicial elections, allowing citizens to vote for approximately 2,600 judicial positions, including Supreme Court justices. This reform, championed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was presented as a move to democratize the judiciary and combat corruption (Reuters, 2025).
However, the reform has been met with significant criticism. Voter turnout was notably low, with only about 13% of the electorate participating, raising questions about the legitimacy of the process (El País, 2025). Critics argue that the reform undermines judicial independence by politicizing the judiciary, as many candidates were pre-selected by the ruling Morena party, potentially compromising their impartiality (The Guardian, 2025).
Furthermore, the reform includes provisions that limit the Supreme Court’s ability to challenge constitutional amendments, effectively shielding the judiciary overhaul from legal scrutiny (Bloomberg, 2024). President Sheinbaum has asserted that the Supreme Court cannot stop the judicial reform, emphasizing the administration’s stance on limiting judicial checks on legislative actions (Reuters, 2024).
These developments suggest a significant erosion of the separation of powers in Mexico, as the judiciary’s independence is compromised, and its role as a check on the executive and legislative branches is diminished. A more in-depth analysis of the implications of this judicial reform will be provided in a forthcoming report.
XIII. Conclusion: A Binational Mandate
The war against Mexico’s cartels transcends conventional crime-fighting; it is a spiraling humanitarian catastrophe whose fallout reverberates on both sides of the border. In Mexico, entire communities live under the yoke of cartel rule, where mass graves in Colima and elsewhere stand as grim testaments to unchecked violence, and municipal police forces are either co-opted or annihilated. In the United States, emergency rooms overflow with overdose victims as fentanyl and methamphetamine, funneled through ever-adapting trafficking networks, exact a daily toll on families in every state. These parallel tragedies bear the same root: a fragmented, transactional approach that treats symptoms—sporadic raids, headline-grabbing prosecutions—while leaving deeper enablers unaddressed. Without a cohesive, long-term framework that reconciles enforcement with social reform and judicial integrity, the cycle of violence and impunity will only intensify.
Any binational strategy must begin by acknowledging that cartels have become quasi-state actors, with sophisticated leadership structures and diversified portfolios that span drug production, extortion, illegal mining, and money laundering through tourism and real estate. The Sinaloa Cartel’s infiltration of resort economies in Cancún and Tulum, the CJNG’s expansion into Central America, and the Cartel del Noreste’s stranglehold on border corridors demonstrate a level of adaptability that outpaces piecemeal crackdowns. Efforts to decapitate leadership, such as the extraditions of nearly thirty kingpins, are necessary but insufficient if local governance remains compromised. Allegations of government collusion, from campaign finance irregularities under AMLO to municipal police corruption, underscore that without rigorous anti-corruption measures and protections for witnesses and reform-minded officials, each newly arrested capo merely cedes space for the next ambitious lieutenant.
Moreover, while framed as democratizing, the recent overhaul of Mexico’s judiciary risks further entrenching partisan influence over prosecutions and weakening checks on executive power. A judiciary beholden to political actors cannot impartially adjudicate cases against high-level officials or dismantle cartels’ intricate cross-border networks. At the same time, the United States’ designation of cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, and its expanded use of sanctions and intelligence operations, risks militarizing the conflict to the detriment of civilian lives—drone strikes near Tamaulipas, for instance, may fracture cartel hierarchies but can also ignite brutal reprisals against local populations. A recalibration is imperative: enforcement measures must be strategically paired with investments in social programs—education, healthcare, community policing, and economic opportunities—that address the conditions cartels exploit.
Accountability must extend beyond cartel foot soldiers to the very institutions that enable their power. Mexico’s federal and state governments cannot defer reform in favor of short-term security pacts; they must prioritize transparency in campaign financing, strengthen protections for investigative journalists and civic activists, and build a judiciary capable of resisting political interference. Simultaneously, the United States must commit to robust border and financial oversight, targeting money-laundering pipelines and closing legal loopholes that allow cartel family members to exploit intelligence exceptions. Granting sanctuary to Ovidio Guzmán López’s relatives may have provided tactical intelligence gains, but it also sends a dangerous message: that cartel elites can negotiate impunity. Ending these perceived double standards is crucial to preserving moral authority and deterring future collusion.
Looking ahead, Mexico and the United States stand at a crossroads. Should both nations persist with narrowly defined, enforcement-only tactics, cartels will continue to fragment, become more elusive, and exert deeper control over vulnerable populations. Turf wars will flare, displacing more families and breeding recruits for criminal enterprises. Alternatively, if Mexico and the United States forge a comprehensive, multilevel partnership—one that couples targeted intelligence and law enforcement with sweeping institutional reform and socioeconomic investment—there exists a narrow but attainable path toward reducing violence, restoring state legitimacy, and rebuilding community resilience. This requires political will on both sides: Mexico must treat corruption and judicial independence as matters of national security, not mere policy priorities; the United States must recognize that long-term stability depends as much on rural development and urban revitalization as on interdiction tactics.
Ultimately, success will be measured not by the headlines announcing the capture of another cartel boss, but by the absence of mass graves, the closing of crack houses, the reopening of shuttered schools, and the return of safe passage for farmers and commuters in once-war-torn regions. It will hinge on two sovereign nations willing to transcend short-term optics and embrace a shared, sustained commitment to justice, dignity, and durable peace. Only by doing so can we turn the tide on a conflict that, left unchecked, threatens to consume the very social fabric of North America.
References
CBS News. (2025, May). 17 family members of Sinaloa Cartel leader entered U.S. under secret deal. Retrieved from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sinaloa-cartel-leader-family-enters-us-deal-trump-administration-mexico/
Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2025). Cartel fragmentation and the militarization of Mexico’s drug war. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org
DEA. (2025). National drug threat assessment. U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Retrieved from https://www.dea.gov/documents
El País. (2025, June 2). Las primeras elecciones judiciales de México solo alcanzan un 13% de participación. Retrieved from https://elpais.com/mexico/2025-06-02/las-primeras-elecciones-judiciales-de-mexico-solo-alcanzan-un-13-de-participacion.html
Financial Times. (2025, May). Mass grave tied to Jalisco cartel found in western Mexico. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com
Human Rights Watch. (2024). Mexico: Displacement and fear in the shadow of cartels. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org
Insight Crime. (2024–2025). Profiles of Mexican cartels: CJNG, Sinaloa, and Cartel del Noreste. Retrieved from https://www.insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news
Los Angeles Times. (2024, November). Mexico’s police death toll soars amid cartel targeting of local forces. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/world-nation
NPR. (2025, March). Mexico’s President Sheinbaum pushes back on U.S. troop involvement in anti-cartel operations. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).