04 Jan SITREP – For Whom the Bells Toll? A Hemingway Novel or the New Reality of Foreign Policy
By,
LTC Octavio Pérez, US Army (Ret.), Co-Founder and Senior Fellow, MSI²
Much can be said about Ernest Hemingway, his life, his travels, and his novels, but his titles are also remarkably useful as metaphors and quotations: Death in the Afternoon, For Whom the Bell Tolls, A Farewell to Arms, The Sun Also Rises, A Moveable Feast, The Garden of Eden, To Have and Have Not, In Our Time, The Snows of Kilimanjaro, Men Without Women, Men at War, and Winner Take Nothing.
We begin this update with one of those titles: For Whom the Bell Tolls.
And for whom do these bells toll today? They toll for all those who believe that the current administration in the White House will allow business as usual, permitting continued attacks on U.S. interests, assaults on American personnel deployed worldwide, acts of genocide, or the trafficking of drugs into the United States.
With that introduction, one can summarize several current global developments, including the ongoing War on Drugs, as U.S. forces continue to pursue drug traffickers throughout the hemisphere, particularly in the Caribbean and the Pacific. One may also ask about the response to the attack that killed two National Guardsmen and a civilian contractor in Syria, or inquire how Islamic militants in Nigeria experienced the response to the heinous killing of Christians there within the past month.
Three geographic areas, on three continents, involving three independent but long-festering crises.
As we closed out 2025, events escalated dramatically, with missiles and far more. Operations have already begun inside Venezuela. Some sources suggest one operation; others indicate that possibly two operations occurred between December 24 and 29. One involved a chemical distribution warehouse in the San Francisco district south of Maracaibo, where a facility operated by the well-known company Primasol was completely destroyed by fire. The Venezuelan government and local authorities denied sabotage, attributing the incident to an electrical malfunction.
Curiously, Colombian President Gustavo Petro assisted in the investigation and volunteered additional information, stating to Univision that the facility was being run by the ELN (National Liberation Army), a recognized transnational terrorist organization deeply involved in drug operations alongside the Cartel de los Soles and the Maduro regime. According to Petro, the facility functioned as a cocaine production site operated by the ELN in Venezuela. He further detailed maritime trafficking routes in the Caribbean, noting that marijuana constituted a significant portion of outbound shipments, while narcotics destined for Europe were primarily transported via container ships and semi-submersibles.
Depending on which account one believes, this incident was either a Special Operations action or a catastrophic electrical failure in the middle of the night. It was unrelated to comments President Trump later alluded to at Mar-a-Lago during a brief media Q&A while speaking with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Another confirmed event, possibly involving Special Operations or the CIA, was the destruction of a port facility, including a warehouse and several high-speed boats used to transfer drugs to vessels offshore. This operation reportedly took place near the coastline close to Maiquetía, in Sucre state, near the Araya Peninsula, where Tren de Aragua is believed to have operated a transshipment hub. This incident is widely considered the first inland strike on Venezuelan territory. The Maduro regime remained silent on the matter.
If one believes that nothing further will occur, patience may be required. Iran fought a twelve-day war with Israel; on the thirteenth day, the United States bombed three of Iran’s most critical nuclear facilities. That was this past summer. The Houthis began firing on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Where are they now? Amid a renewed civil war, they lost significant equipment during U.S. retaliatory strikes.
The Islamic State, long thought dormant in scattered cells across western Syria, attempted to infiltrate and attack a U.S. base. Within thirty-six hours, more than thirty-six militants were neutralized. Cooperation occurred not only with the Syrian government but also on another continent: in Nigeria, where government forces assisted in identifying militant camps in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, and Borno states, operated by Boko Haram and Lakurawa.
There is a new sheriff in town, and he is not inclined to stop. Covert operations are not conducted in the open; full disclosure should not be expected. However, by assembling the pieces, patterns emerge. Clandestine operations may include sabotage, kidnappings, unexplained fires, and the destruction of key infrastructure. If one wonders what “Phase Two” looks like, patience and careful observation will provide the answer.
A brief historical aside:
Astronomical Reference Points
- New Moon, December 2025 (December 19): ISIS camp strikes in Syria
(Following the December 13, 2025, killing of two U.S. service members and a U.S. civilian interpreter) - New Moon, January 1991 (January 15): Start of Operation Desert Storm air campaign
- New Moon, February 1991 (February 14): Start of Desert Storm ground campaign
- New Moon, December 1989 (December 17): Two days prior to Operation Just Cause in Panama
Historically, major operations have often coincided with periods of minimal moonlight. While drones and missiles operate year-round, the absence of moonlight remains tactically advantageous.
References
Associated Press. (2025). U.S. launches strikes against Islamic State group in Nigeria after attacks target Christians. https://apnews.com/article/trump-islamic-state-nigeria-43478823f0562cafc527fad1448a0542
BBC News. (2025). U.S. carries out “massive” strike against IS in Syria. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yq7zzw618o
BBC News. (2025). U.S. launches strikes against Islamic State in Nigeria. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj69j8l918do
CNN Español. (2025, December 31). El ataque de la CIA acerca a Trump a graves decisiones de Año Nuevo sobre Venezuela. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2025/12/31/eeuu/analisis-ataque-cia-acerca-trump-venezuela-trax
France 24. (2025, December 29). Trump afirma que EE. UU. atacó una “zona de muelles donde cargan barcos con droga” en Venezuela. https://www.france24.com/es/ee-uu-y-canad%C3%A1/20251229-trump-afirma-que-ee-uu-atac%C3%B3-una-zona-de-muelles-donde-cargan-barcos-con-droga-en-venezuela
The New York Times. (2025, December 30). La CIA realizó un ataque con drones a un puerto de Venezuela. https://www.nytimes.com/es/2025/12/30/espanol/estados-unidos/ataque-cia-puerto-venezuela.html
Univision. (2025). Lo que se sabe del posible primer ataque terrestre de EE. UU. contra Venezuela. https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/lo-que-sabe-posible-primer-ataque-terrestre-eeuu-contra-venezuelaies to Castro-communism, the United States must recognize the interconnected threat. From Venezuelan streets to American university campuses, the ideology persists and demands vigilance. The year 2026 has begun well. With Maduro in custody, perhaps the dawn of a post-socialist era in Latin America is within reach. The United States has fired the opening salvo; now it must commit to the fight.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).