22 May Cuba Is One Hurricane Away from Collapse — And 2025 Could Bring a “2008 Trifecta”
By,
Jesús Daniel Romero, Co-Founder, Senior Fellow, MSI²
Preface: As someone who has spent decades observing and working on the frontlines of Latin American security, I have learned that the most dangerous threats are often not sudden — they are slow-moving collapses hidden beneath the surface. In 2008, I watched Cuba absorb the blows of Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma — a “Trifecta” that inflicted billions in damage but failed to trigger international alarm. The regime barely survived because it still had enough resilience, enough outside help, and credibility to keep the country from falling apart.
But what I have seen over the past year is different.
In 2024 and early 2025, Cuba suffered from some of its worst blackouts in history, a collapsed housing sector, near-total food insecurity, and deepening public despair. Unlike in 2008, there is no lifeline from Venezuela. There is no Soviet safety net. The regime is brittle, hollow, and utterly unprepared.
This article is not meant as alarmism. It is intended as a forecast — a hard look at the realities on the ground, informed by history, climate models, and the unmistakable warning signs of collapse. As the 2025 hurricane season begins, we must consider that Cuba’s breaking point may not come from rebellion or invasion, but from one natural disaster — maybe two — that simply shatter what remains.
This isn’t about politics. It’s about planning for what’s likely to come.
With just days to go before the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins, Cuba stands on the brink of disaster. A direct hit from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane would unleash a crisis unlike anything the modern Western Hemisphere has seen. The island’s crumbling infrastructure, collapsed economy, and repressive regime have left it defenseless against a major climatic blow (Reuters, 2025a; El País, 2025).
But what if it’s not just one storm? What if 2025 brings a repeat of 2008?
That year, a devastating “Trifecta” of three major hurricanes — Gustav, Ike, and Paloma — struck Cuba in rapid succession. The result was over $10 billion in damage, widespread blackouts, agricultural collapse, and long-term national trauma (Wikipedia, 2025a). The difference? In 2008, Cuba still had some measure of resilience. In 2025, it has none.
The Cuban regime is far more brittle than we believe. Outwardly defiant, but internally hollow, it clings to power through repression, propaganda, and decades of dependency. The electrical grid is on the verge of collapse, food is scarce, and medicine is nearly gone. Cuba has not attracted more investment or funding than it had before 2008— in fact, its infrastructure is in even more precarious condition today (Reuters, 2025a; CiberCuba, 2025a).
Climate will win where armies cannot. No regime, no military, no ideology can stop a wall of water, collapsing roads, or a total loss of electricity and communications. And this year’s conditions — record-high Atlantic temperatures and a fast-approaching La Niña — make a multi-storm season not only likely, but dangerously probable (Adaptation Fund, 2021).
We’ve been conditioned to believe that Russia or China will step in. But the reality is stark: neither Moscow nor Beijing has the capacity or will to deliver large-scale disaster relief. And even if aid arrives, the Cuban Communist Party (CCP) ensures that assistance is directed first toward regime survivability, not public need. Relief becomes a tool for control, not recovery.
And then there is the psychological toll. After decades of hardship, a mindset of normalized misery has taken hold. As one Cuban put it:
“Cuba’s been like this for yeeeeeeears. It’s always the people who suffer, never the bosses. If someone complains, you already know what happens. We’ve lived so long in misery that it’s become normal. The only real way out? Leave. Flee the island. Tomorrow, if the lights go out forever… it’ll just be more of the same.”
This is a national profile shaped by repression, dependency, and resignation. Since the revolution, Cubans have been conditioned to rely on others — from the Soviets to Venezuela to family abroad. Even the dream of liberty has been outsourced to others. Freedom, like food, is expected to arrive from outside (IDMC, 2019).
Even the United States, with all its might and goodwill, could be overwhelmed if South Florida is struck simultaneously — a scenario that grows more plausible with every passing season (Reuters, 2025b).
There will be no Soviet airlift. No Chávez oil convoy. No Chinese hospital ship.
Mexico’s Sheinbaum may send fuel, but she cannot stop the sea.
This is no longer a warning — it is a forecast.
One hurricane is all it takes. However, a “2008 Trifecta” in 2025 could deliver the final blow — not just to Cuba’s infrastructure, but to what remains of its national soul.
The end of the Cuban regime may come after all, but not through military conflict, foreign intervention, or internal revolt. It may come from something far more indifferent: a natural disaster. After decades of neglect, brittle infrastructure, economic collapse, and public exhaustion, all it could take is one Category 4 or 5 hurricane to bring the system crashing down.
It’s impossible to predict the future, but this outcome is no longer speculative—it is a credible, foreseeable scenario based on current conditions and forecasted threats. The warning signs are clear: The infrastructure is collapsing, the people are fatigued, and the regime is hollowed out.
This is one disaster that U.S. and regional planners must not view as a “potential crisis” but rather as an eventual one. It is not a matter of if; it is a matter of when.
And when it does happen — if Cuba takes a direct hit — the fallout could be so severe, it will make the impact of the U.S. 2024 hurricane season look small by comparison.
References
Adaptation Fund. (2021, March 19). Cuba accesses US$23.9 million grant from Green Climate Fund for coastal resilience project. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.adaptation-undp.org/cuba-accesses-us239-million-grant-green-climate-fund-coastal-resilience-project
CiberCuba. (2025a, May 6). Housing plan in Cuba fails: Government acknowledges its failure without consequences. https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2025-05-06-u1-e199370-s27061-nid302216-incumplen-plan-viviendas-cuba-gobierno-reconoce
El País. (2025, March 15). Un nuevo apagón deja a Cuba a oscuras en su peor crisis energética en décadas. https://elpais.com/america/2025-03-15/un-nuevo-apagon-deja-a-cuba-a-oscuras-en-su-peor-crisis-energetica-en-decadas.html
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. (2019, March). The ripple effect: Economic impacts of internal displacement. https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/201903-economic-impact-cuba.pdf
Reuters. (2025a, May 15). Blackouts—and temperatures—on rise in Cuban capital Havana. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/blackouts-temperatures-rise-cuban-capital-havana-2025-05-15/
Reuters. (2025b, March 26). Cuban domestic freight traffic plummets in sign of deepening crisis. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-domestic-freight-traffic-plummets-sign-deepening-crisis-2025-03-26/
Wikipedia contributors. (2025a, October 21). Hurricane Ike. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).