Policy Brief – U.S.–Venezuela Conflict: Escalation in the Caribbean Theater
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18 Sep Policy Brief – U.S.–Venezuela Conflict: Escalation in the Caribbean Theater

Posted at 17:37h in Analysis, English, Top3 by

By,

Jesus Daniel Romero, Co-Founder & Senior Fellow / Dr. Rafael Marrero, Founder & CEO, MSI²

Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²)


I. Triggers

• Cartel de los Soles SDGT Designation (July 25, 2025): The U.S. Department of the Treasury designated the Cartel de los Soles as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) organization, citing Nicolás Maduro’s leadership and alliances with Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel.

• Growing Narco-Terrorist Threat: U.S. intelligence assessed increasing cocaine flows from Venezuelan waters, protected by state and militia forces aligned with the Cartel de los Soles.

II. U.S. Actions

• September 2, 2025 – First Lethal Strike: U.S. forces destroyed a Venezuelan narco-boat in the Caribbean Sea, killing 11 operatives.

• September 4, 2025 – War Powers Notification: The White House submitted a report to Congress under the War Powers Resolution, asserting Article II authority and self-defense.

• September 13, 2025 – VBSS Operation: U.S. Navy conducted a Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) on a Venezuelan tuna vessel near La Blanquilla. Caracas denounced the act as piracy.

• September 15, 2025 – Second Lethal Strike: U.S. forces struck another narco-boat, killing 3 operatives.

• September 16, 2025 – Third Lethal Strike: President Trump confirmed U.S. forces sank a third suspected drug boat off Venezuela.

U.S. Naval Task Force grows massive in preparation for the invasion of Venezuela! The USS Lake Erie (CG-70) has now joined an expanding U.S. fleet in the Caribbean. At least eight American warships, including the USS Iwo Jima, USS San Antonio, and USS Newport News, are deployed across the SOUTHCOM area of operations. This massive armada represents 12% of the entire US Navy currently at sea. A clear signal: the campaign against Maduro and Venezuela is accelerating.
Credit: US Homeland Security News​ /​ @IANELLISJONES X @IEJMEDIA

III. Venezuelan Responses

• Political Denunciation: Caracas condemned U.S. strikes as “acts of war” and sovereignty violations.

• Operación Caribe Soberano 200 (Sept 17–19, 2025): Venezuela staged joint drills at Isla La Orchila with ~2,500 troops, 12–20 naval vessels, ~22 aircraft, and militia skiffs. The exercise highlighted asymmetric defense and militia integration.

IV. Risks and Escalation Dynamics

• Operational Risks: Risk of miscalculation between U.S. patrols and Venezuelan militia swarms; potential EW disruptions (GPS jamming, radar lock-ons).

• Strategic Risks: Possible asymmetric retaliation via Tren de Aragua, cyber disruption, or harassment of allied shipping.

• Policy Risks: U.S. War Powers debates may constrain operations; Colombia, Guyana, and CARICOM states face destabilization pressures.

V. Effectiveness of U.S. Operations

• Operational Success: The three lethal strikes and VBSS disrupted cocaine shipments, preventing tons from reaching U.S. markets.

• Strategic Disruption: Visible risk of vessel destruction undermines traffickers’ reliance on Caribbean corridors.

• Domestic Impact: Cocaine shipments are being intercepted closer to origin, reducing availability on U.S. streets.

• Message to Adversaries: Demonstrates that Venezuelan state-enabled trafficking is treated as a terrorist threat warranting sustained kinetic action.

VI. Policy Options (for NSC Consideration)

1. Maintain Current Posture: Continue targeted strikes and VBSS operations under self-defense authority.

2. Escalate Pressure: Expand to pre-emptive strikes on Venezuelan radar, militia bases, and logistics hubs.

3. Coalition Strategy: Build multilateral maritime task forces with Colombia, France, Netherlands, and regional partners.

4. Information Dominance: Increase public disclosures on Cartel de los Soles’ terrorist ties and Maduro’s alliances with Iran/Hezbollah.

VII. Recommendations

1. Institutionalize Forward Defense: Formalize kinetic interdiction of narco-terrorist vessels at origin. Maintain persistent ISR coverage.

2. Expand Multilateral Cover: Engage Colombia, Guyana, the Netherlands, and France in a Caribbean Maritime Security Coalition.

3. Diplomatic Signaling: Leverage SDGT designation in OAS, UN, and EU forums to reframe operations as counterterrorism.

4. Strategic Communications: Emphasize effectiveness (cocaine disrupted, U.S. lives saved). Counter critics with data and intelligence-driven targeting evidence.

5. Prepare Escalation Management: Harden cyber defenses, monitor Tren de Aragua abroad, warn regional shipping, and define clear U.S. red lines.

6. Congressional Engagement: Provide regular War Powers updates; stress linkage between cocaine trafficking, terrorism financing, and U.S. drug fatalities.

Bottom Line

The U.S. campaign is working. Cocaine shipments bound for the United States are being stopped and disrupted at sea. With three lethal strikes and one VBSS in September 2025, the conflict has escalated into a sustained confrontation with Venezuela’s state-aligned terrorist network. Forward defense is neutralizing narco-terrorist platforms before they reach U.S. shores.

References

ABC News. (2025, September 15). 3 killed in US strike on 2nd alleged Venezuelan drug boat, Trump says. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/3-killed-2nd-strike-alleged-venezuelan-drug-boat/story?id=125599866

Crisis Group. (2025, September 3). Legal issues raised by a lethal U.S. military attack in the Caribbean. International Crisis Group. https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/united-states-venezuela/legal-issues-raised-lethal-us-military-attack-caribbean

Military.com. (2025, September 15). Trump says U.S. military again targeted a boat allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/09/15/trump-says-us-military-again-targeted-boat-allegedly-carrying-drugs-venezuela.html

Military.com. (2025, September 16). Trump says U.S. forces sank third suspected drug boat off Venezuela. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/09/16/trump-says-us-forces-sank-third-suspected-drug-boat-off-venezuela.html

Politico. (2025, September 4). White House to defend its drug boat strike to Congress. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/04/white-house-boat-strike-congress-defense-00543955

Reuters. (2025, September 3). U.S. military kills 11 people in strike on alleged drug boat from Venezuela, Trump says. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-military-kills-11-people-strike-alleged-drug-boat-venezuela-trump-says-2025-09-03/

The White House. (2025, September 4). Letter to Congressional leaders on the War Powers Resolution regarding the Caribbean Sea operation. Washington, DC. Retrieved from https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/trump-offers-first-legal-justification-for-venezuela-boat-strike

U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2025, July 25). Treasury designates Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles as Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) organization. U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases

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