05 Jan SITREP – China Update: The Cat Is Out of the Bag
By,
LTC Octavio Pérez, U.S. Army (Ret.), Co-Founder and Senior Fellow, MSI²
As we said, after the September 3rd parade, the cat is out of the bag. Sightings, full media coverage, and in-your-face maneuvers are now taking place openly for the world to observe.
As we mentioned in our first article on the September 3rd parade, there was much more to see and analyze afterward. And the Chinese have indeed gone into full-blown disclosure of most of the platforms unveiled during the parade.
The month of November should be referred to as the “debut month.” A string of articles from Chinese government outlets and foreign media, including think tanks, have begun analyzing videos and photographs, rendering their first assessments of the vast stealth technologies and equipment first publicly displayed during the parade.
One of the first promotional videos released by the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) showed the coordinated use of the GJ-11 unmanned stealth attack drone, also known as Sharp Sword and commonly nicknamed the “loyal wingman.” The video shows the drone flying in formation with J-20 and J-16D fighters, marking the first time these platforms have been seen operating together in the open.
We are now also hearing of one of its new code names: Xuanglong. During the video, a commentator stated that both the aircraft and the drone (J-20/GJ-11) share a data link and operate as stealth platforms. With this link, tandem operations extend the stealth penetration of the J-20 by allowing the GJ-11 to operate further forward on the battlefield without risking the loss of a pilot.
When the J-16D is added to the equation, electromagnetic interference capabilities are introduced to help suppress air defense radars. The commencement of training and fielding of this drone provides additional advantages, including its potential use as an expendable decoy for combat missions and strategic strikes. Keep in mind that China already has these systems in the air and is undergoing testing, while we (the U.S.) remain in research and development phases, conducting live-fire test flights.
Another platform also being tested, potentially from a vessel, is the unmanned helicopter drone seen during the parade: the AR-500C. Once again, state television footage showed the helicopter landing on a ship’s flight deck. The real intrigue became where it landed. What ship was used? Speculation has ranged across two or three possible platforms, civilian or military, where the testing may have occurred. Quite simply, the ship has not been conclusively identified.
Some speculated that it was a “civilian aircraft carrier,” when in fact it may have been a deep-sea exploration vessel with a helipad on the bow. However, doubts remain as to whether it was Exploration 01 or possibly a prototype amphibious assault vessel that was coincidentally undergoing sea trials at the time. As a result, the enigma became the platform on which it landed, rather than the fact that the drone itself is now being openly tested and publicly displayed.
Other outlets, such as The War Zone, further concluded that the vessel may be a new prototype drone carrier capable of dual-use (civil–military) roles. Ultimately, the platform’s purpose remains clear: a multirole unmanned helicopter capable of surveillance, reconnaissance, search and rescue, or acting as an aerial information relay node.
September 3rd marked a clear “before and after” moment for many Chinese platforms, especially in stealth technology, with final recognition of multiple variants and prototypes. This implies lessons learned, modifications, and steady progress toward final prototypes suitable for full production.
Within ten months of September 3rd, we have been able to confirm the evolution of sixth-generation fighter aircraft. Recent photos of a Chengdu aircraft, possibly designated the J-36, show a tailless, three-engine configuration. It also features angular exhaust nozzles, in contrast to the recessed exhausts previously observed on its predecessor, suggesting a move toward adopting an exhaust system similar to that of the U.S. F-22 Raptor, a fifth-generation fighter.
This design concept would provide improved maneuverability and stability during certain aerial maneuvers. The triple-engine layout, with one dorsal and two ventral air intakes, further enhances its stealth profile. Another tailless fighter has also been confirmed, reportedly code-named the J-50, featuring modifications such as the removal of an infrared data boom. These developments occurred between December 2024 and September 2025.
Establishing research and development comparisons and examining the timeline required to field the J-20, it was determined that it took slightly over six years. If this R&D pattern continues for sixth-generation fighters, we may see them reach operational status by early 2031.
Another significant sighting involves a large unmanned aircraft observed after China unveiled several new drones during the Beijing military parade. A platform believed to be a variant of the GJ-X was first seen on October 19 across multiple social media platforms and had also been observed earlier in August at the Malan military airfield in Xinjiang Province.
Its unusual size, estimated at over 42 meters, places it in the same category as the B-21 Raider. The purpose of this large unmanned aircraft remains undetermined. According to other sources, videos posted online claim it may be a medium strategic bomber.
This leads us to believe that it could represent a prototype or offshoot of what has been referred to as the H-20 bomber. Official Chinese sources, since March 2024, have hinted at the eventual revelation of the H-20, while open-source analysts from The War Zone have identified features such as split rudders and a possible twin-engine design.
Once again, there is a great deal of information to digest following the parade, with still more to come.
Turning to profitable international sales items, the Feilong-300D reconnaissance and attack drone, also considered a loitering munition, priced at approximately $10,000 per unit, provides developing nations with a powerful, low-cost tool that can easily be mass-produced. It represents a strong deterrent for countries involved in border disputes and encroachments, as seen in cases involving Thailand and Cambodia, as well as India, China, and Pakistan.
Suicide drones have proven their effectiveness in the Russia–Ukraine war, and Iran has also used them against Israel. They provide a significantly cheaper alternative to missiles.
With a potential range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), the ability to evade air defense systems, and in-flight adaptability, these systems offer a powerful capability to any user.
Another notable October highlight involved an older fourth-generation aircraft, the J-16, which was on patrol when it intercepted two unidentified foreign aircraft and executed a barrel roll maneuver within 30 meters of them. This provocative and dangerous move nevertheless demonstrates the reliability and versatility of this decade-old platform.
Adding more fuel to the fire, Chinese state television released footage of the pilot who performed the maneuver, who also revealed that the J-16 has been adapted to carry external fuel tanks, extending its operational range. Consider that this aircraft is the workhorse of the fleet. With more than 350 units in active service, the J-16 interceptor accounts for many of the most high-profile encounters with U.S. and allied aircraft in recent years.
China has now come fully into the open, with new prototypes being tested publicly, written about extensively, and showcased across state-controlled media platforms. As the title says, the cat is out of the bag.
The Fujian has finally entered active service, amphibious assault landing craft are conducting joint exercises, and new aircraft platforms are being openly displayed. Even specific functions and capabilities are openly highlighted. There is nothing to hide, and, as stated earlier, still more to come.
References
Alcott, W. (2025, November 11). PLA shows first footage of Chinese GJ-11 drone working with crewed J-20 fighter. South China Morning Post.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3332383/pla-shows-first-footage-chinese-gj-11-drone-collaborating-crewed-j-20-fighter
Altman, H., & Rogoway, T. (2025, November 7). Can U.S. intel keep up with China’s tsunami of weapons development? The War Zone.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/can-u-s-intel-keep-up-with-chinas-tsunami-of-weapons-developments
Associated Press. (2025, November 14). Fresh off commissioning new aircraft carrier, China starts sea trials of amphibious assault ship.
https://apnews.com/article/china-amphibious-assault-ship-carrier-navy-sichuan-523451ce91a7b7d730cf8412407a8ed1
Liu, Z. (2025, November 7). What ship did China use to test a drone helicopter at sea? South China Morning Post.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3331897/what-ship-did-china-use-test-drone-helicopter-sea
South China Morning Post. (2025, November 14). China’s first 076 “drone carrier” amphibious assault ship begins sea trials.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3332717/chinas-first-076-drone-carrier-amphibious-assault-ship-sichuan-starts-sea-trials
South China Morning Post. (2025). China’s updated sixth-generation fighter jets put US on notice for air supremacy.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3331234/chinas-updated-6th-generation-fighter-jets-put-us-notice-air-supremacy
South China Morning Post. (2025). Low-cost killer: Can China’s Feilong-300D suicide drone deter rivals and impress buyers?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3331052/low-cost-killer-can-chinas-feilong-300d-suicide-drone-deter-rivals-and-impress-buyers
South China Morning Post. (2025). New Chinese stealth drone spotted flying for the first time. Is it a next-gen bomber?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3329842/new-chinese-stealth-drone-spotted-flying-first-time-it-next-gen-bomber
South China Morning Post. (2025). Why China’s J-16 “Hidden Dragon” is now making headlines despite rise of more advanced jets.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3330388/why-chinas-j-16-hidden-dragon-now-making-headlines-despite-rise-more-advanced-jets
South China Morning Post. (2025). Why the J-35 Gyrfalcon is crucial to China’s power projection on the high seas.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3286437/why-j-35-gyrfalcon-crucial-chinas-power-projection-high-seas
South China Morning Post. (2025, November 14). Three PLA warships sailed past Japan amid row over PM Takaichi’s Taiwan comments.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3332845/3-pla-warships-sailed-past-japan-amid-row-over-sanae-takaichis-taiwan-comments
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).