17 Jun SITREP: Five Days in June

By,

Octavio Perez, Senior Fellow | MSI²

And no, it is not Stefan Heym’s novel about the 1953 Berlin uprising or Barbara Stemiskis’s novel about a young woman’s tragedy in Hawaii.

 

“Five Days in June” may mark the beginning of a new era, a point of no return. A critical geopolitical realignment is long overdue. At last, someone has taken the lead in confronting one of the world’s most destabilizing forces: Iran.

Forty-six years ago, a Persian kingdom disappeared, and a theocratic regime took its place. Since then, the Iranian regime has orchestrated and supported Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It has also played a key role in supplying Shahed drones to Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine, now over three years long. Iran maintains ties with the Venezuelan regime, facilitating an air bridge used for smuggling gold.

And yet, for decades, no major actor has addressed Iran as a central destabilizing force in the global order. The nuclear treaties of 2005 failed. In 2025, with Iran enriching uranium beyond 60%, direct bilateral talks between the U.S. and Tehran once again yielded nothing.

Coordinated discussions with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, and Qatar also led nowhere.

So, what was left to do?

The only country whose very existence is at stake took action: Israel.

These five days in June may extend into more, until either Iran surrenders its nuclear program or the regime falls.

In just five days, King Abdullah of Jordan announced that his country would shoot down any missiles flying over its territory from Iran. Syria’s government has issued no condemnation for the violation of its airspace or the downing of Iranian missiles. Let’s not forget that on September 21, 2023, the Saudi Crown Prince stated that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would pursue its own program (The Guardian, 2023).

Former President Trump toured the Middle East several months ago to discuss Iran’s disarmament and encourage a halt to its nuclear ambitions. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has not responded to Tehran’s request for support following the loss of most of its air defenses (The New York Times, 2025), unwilling to jeopardize relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

So again, what can be done?

President Trump continues to post on Truth Social, and surprisingly, Iranian civilians appear to be responding to evacuation messages. For the first time in years, there is a groundswell of public protest in Iran calling for change.

In 2016, 69.9% of Iranians were between 15 and 64 years old (Wikipedia, n.d.); 43% of them were aged 15 to 39. As of 2022, the youth unemployment rate (ages 15–24) stood at 22.7% (Statista, 2024).

Today, the United States has declared that it does not intend to pursue regime change, but it knows the location of Ayatollah Khamenei, though he is not currently considered a target (Associated Press, 2025).

Israel has reportedly asked the U.S. for the “final solution.” The GBU-57/B, a massive ordnance penetrator carried by the B-2 Spirit bomber (six of which are stationed at a forward operating base in Diego Garcia), is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground—according to unclassified specifications (The War Zone, n.d.-a). The Fordo nuclear facility is the fulcrum of the battle. Its destruction would contaminate the area and deal a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program.

Meanwhile, a third U.S. aircraft carrier (USS Nimitz) and a fourth UK carrier (HMS Prince of Wales) have been deployed. Over 24 KC-135 and KC-46A aerial refuelers are either in the Middle East or on standby in Norway (The War Zone, n.d.-b).

What all this means is not yet clear. Will this confrontation escalate into a broader war—or will internal upheaval in Iran bring about change before the final blow is delivered?

The pieces are in place. What happens next? Who will make the next move?

Side Notes on Iran’s Involvement in Global Events Over 46 Years:

• Hezbollah’s presence in the tri-border area (Ciudad del Este, Paraguay) predates the September 11 attacks.
  
• Bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina: July 18, 1994 (85 killed, 300 injured).

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References

Associated Press. (2025). Trump says the US knows where Iran’s Khamenei is hiding and urges Iran’s unconditional surrender. https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-nuclear-israel-g7-132d92f3b5f4014cced1c5029d839ae9

Statista. (2024). Iran: Youth unemployment rate from 2005 to 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/812112/youth-unemployment-rate-in-iran/

The Guardian. (2023, September 21). Crown prince confirms Saudi Arabia will seek nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/crown-prince-confirms-saudi-arabia-seek-nuclear-arsenal-iran-develops-one

The New York Times. (2025, June 17). Despite close ties with Iran, Russia stands aside as Israel attacks. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/world/middleeast/iran-russia-relationship-analysis.html

The War Zone. (n.d.). Armada of USAF tankers just deployed east over Atlantic spurring speculation. https://www.twz.com/air/armada-of-usaf-tankers-just-deployed-east-over-atlantic-spurring-speculation

The War Zone. (n.d.). Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker buster grows more potent thanks to new tests. https://www.twz.com/air/massive-ordnance-penetrator-bunker-buster-grows-more-potent-thanks-to-new-tests

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Demographics of Iran. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).