22 Aug SITREP: The 2025 China Victory Parade, on September 3rd, is one to watch, but here are some previews
By,
Octavio Pérez, Senior Fellow, MSI²
As we have seen through the years in the old Soviet Union, now in Russia and even North Korea; national holidays and their parades serve to identify key equipment in their Armed Forces.
These parades become an imagery interpreter’s panacea to obtain the best mensuration, key views, angles of the equipment they have been monitoring and identifying for years.
September 3rd is less than a month away, but all major analysts have been having a ball with imagery for the last several months. Why? Simple: These parades require staging areas, rehearsals, formations, and static displays close to the venue or just outside the city where most of the equipment is staged.
Apart from that, several other locations within the country also become more active, and many of the secret facilities bring out prototypes of new aircraft, vehicles, and missiles. This again becomes an AI (Aerial Imagery) interpreter’s dream come true. Since in a month’s time they may be able to analyze, evaluate their targets, and redefine a description or identify a new variant or prototype.
This time around, once again, we will go over the findings of three articles recently published between July 29th and August 09 of this year. The focus is on Chinese stealth fighters and bombers. It appears to be they will be part of the parade with the potential of having some even be seen on transporters within the parade.
So not only will they probably fly by, but a sample or prototype may also be seen at ground level. The articles are based on recent imagery captured of some of these aircraft as they make their debut and start deploying towards Beijing for the parade. In one case, only six photos were taken; in others, several videos have come from X, Telegram, and other Chinese platforms. All source analysts are also taking advantage of this activity since, obviously, seeing the fly maneuver, they can ascertain the capabilities and limitations of each platform.
Getting to the meat of the subject, recent photography and sightings of the following Chinese aircraft produced the three articles we analyzed. The aircraft in question are:
- Chinese Stealth bomber Xian H-20
- Shenyang J-35
- Chengdu J-36.
- GJ-11 Sharp Sword
- J-20
- J-50
- FH-97
- FH-97A
Let’s review some of the key data, starting with the beast, the H-20 Stealth bomber, which is reaching operational status according to these articles. For almost a decade (2010), the H-20 has been in development. Although it may not be up to par with the B-2 bomber or the follow-on B-21, it seems to accommodate their immediate need for a stealth bomber with a projection within the Taiwan Straits and South China Seas. This could also include the Indo-Pacific (beyond the Straits of Malacca).
Again, Western analysts underrate this bomber, declaring it “…Dangerously outdated…” but it is still within a limited scope and may just fit China’s immediate needs.
Having the possibility to carry hypersonic missiles that could reach Guam and Hawaii makes it still a valuable asset regardless of technological limitations and apparent obsolescence. The fact that it is coming to an operational status makes it an item of interest to the US to incorporate into its defense planning of the Seventh Fleet.
Their potential deployment to the South China Sea, and potential use in an invasion of Taiwan, do impact the global economy, transit through these two choke points: the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Straits., Its potential nuclear cargo also serves as a deterrence. Being able to patrol without detection over a critical area of the world. Between 94,000 and 100,000 ships navigate through the Strait of Malacca, accounting for about 30% of global trade, 40% of Japan’s trade, 80% of South Korea’s oil, and 60% of its energy supply also pass through there.
This bomber with long-range precision strike capabilities becomes an enforcer and serves China to enforce its territorial claims. Something China is clearly demonstrating daily in the South China Sea with multiple confrontations with the Philippine Coast Guard and others.
Ultimately, with the integration of drone technology, it could also serve as a control platform for other unmanned drones, either as reconnaissance platforms or electronic countermeasures for other bombers. These Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) would also serve as decoys to protect the actual bomber. As you integrate all these aircraft, you cover several aspects of the battlefield with reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, additional payloads for bombing, and protecting the primary aircraft.
The doctrinal impact of its fielding has already caused allies in the region to readjust and upgrade air defenses, such as in Japan, Taiwan, and even South Korea, which has a very viable military production industry. So, after 16 years, the threat is real, the bomber exists, and all must readjust to its presence.
The H-20 going operational will then be the platform of the future for other innovations and create readjustment in that theater of operation. As they have done with the catapults on the Fujian, the H-20 makes once again the second country with a strategic heavy-duty bomber after the US.
Its delay and long development do credit the enhancements made to maximize aerodynamic efficiency, stealth considerations, and payload capacity and range. It defies dominance in the Pacific and China’s sphere of influence, something the US and allies will have to deal with going forward.
The other Stealth 5th and 6th generation aircraft that came in the news are the Shenyang 35 and Chengdu 36. Both are all-weather tactical fighters with limited bomb capacities, with land-based and carrier-bound versions. The J-36 is a tailless stealth aircraft with a higher payload and range than the J-35.
What has also been revealed in recent imagery is that there is another apparent version of a tail-less stealth aircraft, which has not been confirmed as either a crew design or an advanced drone now called UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), which could end up being a manned aircraft or a “loyal wingman” that is another UCAV. This could be either the J-50 or the Shenyang J-XDS.
Only five photos revealed recently have been used to arrive at these preliminary conclusions. The quality and angle shots typical of a leaked photograph are inconclusive enough to make a definite conclusion. Further evidence would be needed to determine if it will be a crewed aircraft or not.
Others think the development of a drone as the loyal wingman comes out of photos from the Yanfang military base outside of Beijing, where vehicles and equipment are being staged for the Sept 3rd parade. Up to 5 CCA-type aircraft are discernible on the commercial satellite imagery.
Also, a GJ 11 Sharp Sword UCAV is identifiable in the group. Four of the drones appear to be tai-less and modified diamond-like delta wings, with the final one having a more traditional wing. These drones are partially covered with tarps and do not necessarily look the same as those seen flying recently.
The final article addresses the J-36 naval variant, which has been observed or confirmed to have landed on an aircraft carrier during rough seas. The capability to do this sends notices to all navies worldwide—China’s development of a direct force control system from advanced robotics. Assist the aircraft as it tweaks control surfaces instantly, sidestepping outdated aerodynamic models. In tests with six-meter waves, deck swings, carrier wakes, wind gusts, and pressure jolts, the J-36 held its approach with laser accuracy. Now storms can’t ground it.
China has the potential to land during rough seas in a scenario using the Fujian AAS (Amphibious Assault Ship), which is also configured with electromagnetic catapults. This puts China ahead of all others in having the potential to deploy and land aircraft with an all-weather capability.
For all other navies navigating the Pacific and Indo-Pacific oceans, which are exposed annually to typhoons, this represents a fighting edge for China. With this said, China has taken the lead; others need to catch up.
You see four articles, a window of three months of observations and preparations for a parade, and you can see how much information was gained.
References
Futura Team. (2025, July 29). This new Chinese fighter jet lands where no plane has ever dared. Futura Sciences. https://www.futura-sciences.com/en/this-new-chinese-fighter-jet-lands-where-no-plane-has-ever-dared_19030/
Honrada, G. (2025, August 9). Mysterious Chinese stealth jet a fresh test for US air dominance: Images of tailless stealth jet heighten US-China race for sixth-generation airpower, where so far ambition outpaces proven capability. Asia Times. https://asiatimes.com/2025/08/mysterious-chinese-stealth-jet-a-fresh-test-for-us-air-dominance/#
Latham, A. (2025, July 21). China’s H-20 stealth bomber has just 1 mission. National Security Journal. https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/chinas-h-20-stealth-bomber-has-just-1-mission/
Newdick, T., & Rogoway, T. (2025, August 5). New Chinese stealth tactical jet breaks cover. The War Zone. https://www.twz.com/air/new-chinese-stealth-tactica-jet-breaks-cover
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).