23 Sep Strategic Intelligence Assessment: Operation Caribe 200 and Independence Plan 200 – The Cartel of the Suns Under Pressure
By,
Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²)
Executive Summary
The Cartel of the Suns, designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) organization in July 2025, used the Venezuelan Armed Forces (FANB) to execute two recent maneuvers: Operation Caribe 200 (external projection) and Independence Plan 200 (internal control).
• Combined estimated costs: USD $60–80 million in just a few weeks.
• Military effectiveness: none; they did not alter U.S. naval and air superiority.
• Political effectiveness: relative; propaganda of resistance and domestic repression.
• Strategic effect: negative; economic, logistical, and diplomatic strain.
• Indicator of pressure: Maduro’s letter to Trump and its public rejection confirm that international pressure is working.
• Diplomatic dimension: Foreign Minister Iván Gil’s participation at the UN highlights an attempt to break isolation, but exposes the embarrassment of the UN giving space to a fraudulent cartel-regime.
1) Strategic Context
The Cartel of the Suns has subsumed the Venezuelan state, turning the FANB and diplomatic apparatus into operational arms of its survival. Caribe 200 and Independence 200 must be understood as cartel operations disguised as state military maneuvers.
2) Operation Caribe 200 – External Projection
• Troops: ≃10–15k rotating personnel.
• Assets: ships, Su-30/K-8 aircraft, fast boats.
• Estimated cost: USD $25–35 million.
• Results:
– No impact on U.S. regional deployment.
– Interdictions of 10–12 tons of cocaine per week continued.
– Balance: propaganda maneuver without real deterrent capacity.
3) Independence Plan 200 – Internal Control
• Troops: 80–100k including FANB, National Guard, Militia, and colectivos.
• Structure: 284 ‘battlefronts’.
• Estimated cost: USD $35–45 million.
• Results:
– Focused on repression and regime protection.
– No contribution to external defense capabilities.
– Confirms FANB’s role as an instrument of the cartel.
4) Costs and Scope
Caribe 200: USD $25–35M | External projection
Independence 200: USD $35–45M | Internal control
Combined total: USD $60–80M | Unsustainable in a few weeks
5) Cartel Adaptation Capacity
• Operational: alternate routes (Ecuador, Brazil, Guyana, Suriname), UAVs, smaller narco-boats.
• Political: resistance propaganda, symbolic militia mobilization.
• Economic: reliance on illegal gold, cryptocurrencies, contraband.
• Diplomatic: Maduro’s letter to Trump as a sign of vulnerability.
MSI² Assessment: adaptation does not represent strength but temporary resistance under growing pressure.
6) The Cartel’s Diplomatic Front at the UN
Foreign Minister Iván Gil, acting as cartel operator, addressed the UN as a representative of an illegitimate regime. By allowing this, the UN de facto legitimizes the July 2024 electoral fraud and the presence of a SDGT-designated cartel-regime. This constitutes a diplomatic embarrassment and underscores the urgency of a parallel hemispheric democratic front.
7) Strategic Risks
• Economic: growing strain on resources and reserves.
• Military: logistical erosion and low morale in FANB.
• Regional: risk of asymmetric escalation (narco-boats, UAVs, criminal alliances).
• Political: reinforced isolation and evidence of illegitimacy.
8) Conclusions and MSI² Recommendations
Caribe 200 and Independence 200 are cartel operations disguised as state military exercises. With USD $60–80M spent in weeks, the model is financially fragile.
Recommendations:
1. Maintain U.S. naval and air pressure.
2. Deepen regional intelligence cooperation.
3. Intensify financial sanctions targeting illicit military expenditures.
4. Promote a parallel diplomatic front.
5. Reinforce narrative: FANB is the armed wing of a terrorist cartel.
9) Direct Impact of U.S. Operations
• Narco-boat interdictions: ≃10 tons of cocaine disrupted weekly.
• VBSS operations: boarding of fishing vessels used as logistic cover.
• Effects: reduced flow to the U.S., multi-million-dollar weekly losses, cartel’s economic weakening.
MSI² Assessment: clear evidence that sustained pressure is yielding measurable and verifiable results.
References
El País. (2025, September 22). La Casa Blanca responde a la carta de Maduro: “Tenía una lista de mentiras. El régimen es ilegítimo.” El País. https://elpais.com/america/2025-09-22/la-casa-blanca-responde-a-la-carta-de-maduro-tenia-una-lista-de-mentiras-el-regimen-es-ilegitimo.html
Latin Times. (2025, September 22). White House rejects Maduro’s letter, calls it “full of lies.” Latin Times. https://www.latintimes.com/white-house-rejects-maduros-letter-calls-it-full-lies-tensions-venezuela-escalate-589781
Reuters. (2025, September 20). Maduro offers to engage in direct talks with Trump envoy Grenell. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/maduro-offers-engage-direct-talks-with-trump-envoy-grenell-2025-09-20/
U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2025, July 25). Counter terrorism designation: Cartel de los Soles (SDGT). U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20250725