05 Apr The Atlantic Council’s Shift on Venezuela: A Reassessment of Trump’s ‘America First’ Strategy?

By,

Jesús Daniel Romero, Co-Founder and Senior Fellow, MSI2

For years, the Atlantic Council has shaped U.S. foreign policy discourse on Venezuela, often favoring a diplomatic, engagement-driven approach over the Trump administration’s hardline “maximum pressure” stance.

Yet, by March 2025, recent publications suggest a subtle pivot, with the Council appearing to align more closely with Trump’s “America First” policy. This shift from outright critique of sanctions to cautious recognition of Trump’s strategic evolution prompts questions: Is this a genuine reassessment of his approach, or a pragmatic response to geopolitical realities?

Past Support for Concessions to Chevron

The Atlantic Council’s earlier divergence from Trump’s policies is evident in its support for energy pragmatism. In December 2024, the Council hosted Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, who urged the incoming Trump administration to balance environmental goals, affordability, and national security in energy policy (Golden, 2024). This subtly endorsed easing Venezuelan oil restrictions, which clashed with Trump’s first-term isolationism. Similarly, William Tobin’s January 22, 2025, issue brief, “‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans,” lambasted Trump’s 2018-2022 sanctions for failing U.S. interests (Tobin, 2025). Tobin argued that broad oil sanctions expelled Western firms, handing Venezuela’s oil sector to China (discounted crude), Iran (diluent supplies), and Russia (investments), while Maduro clung to power and Venezuelans bore the humanitarian brunt. He championed specific licenses like Chevron’s under General License 41 (November 2022) as a smarter alternative, redirecting oil to U.S. markets and curbing rival gains.

This stance echoed the Council’s earlier take on the Treasury’s 2022 decision to allow Chevron’s limited operations with Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), seen as a shift from Trump’s maximum pressure doctrine (Labrador, 2023). These positions prioritized strategic engagement over ideological punishment, setting the stage for the Council’s later evolution.

A New Tone Toward Trump’s Venezuela Policy?

Fast forward to March 2025, and the Council’s rhetoric softened. Geoff Ramsey’s March 25 article, “An ‘America First’ Approach to Venezuela Is Taking Shape,” examines Trump’s March 24 executive order imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil and gas, alongside an extension of Chevron’s wind-down period from April 3 to May 27, 2025 (Ramsey, 2025). Ramsey frames this as an “America First” pivot, pressuring Maduro’s revenue while safeguarding U.S. oil interests hinting at a potential deal on migration, oil reforms, and democratic steps. This marks a departure from Tobin’s January critique, which dismissed maximum pressure as a boon to adversaries like China and Russia, with no democratic payoff.

The contrast between Tobin and Ramsey illuminates the shift. Tobin’s January brief detailed sanctions’ failures: oil flowed to U.S. rivals, Maduro endured, and Venezuelans suffered. By March, Ramsey sees Trump’s tariffs as a targeted response, squeezing third countries (e.g., India) and Maduro’s lifelines, while the Chevron extension nods to Tobin’s license preference within a broader “America First” strategy. Where Tobin rejected blanket sanctions, Ramsey credits Trump’s new tack with strategic promise, reflecting the Council’s growing openness to his approach.

What Drives the Shift?

This trajectory raises key questions:

• Does Trump’s pressure yield results? Tobin’s January view saw no democratic gains from maximum pressure, yet Ramsey’s March piece suggests tariffs might force concessions, hinting at a reassessed effectiveness.

• A reaction to Biden’s missteps? Both authors imply Biden’s softer line e.g., Chevron’s license faltered, with Ramsey noting its failure to curb migration or weaken Maduro, possibly pushing the Council toward Trump’s harder edge.

• Geopolitical pressures? Tobin warned of a China-Russia-Venezuela axis thriving under sanctions; Ramsey positions Trump’s tariffs as a counter, supporting the idea that this alliance spurred a rethink of engagement.

Whatever the cause, the Council’s arc from Tobin’s rejection of maximum pressure to Ramsey’s measured embrace of “America First” signals a broader realignment in U.S. foreign policy discourse. Secretary Noem’s impending Colombia visit, amid the Venezuela crisis, may test this shift further. If the Council continues warming to Trump’s blend of pressure and pragmatism, it could mark a lasting pivot from its earlier critiques.

Effects of the 25% Tariff on Purchasers of Venezuelan Oil

The executive order stipulates that, effective April 2, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported into the United States from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly or indirectly. These duties are supplemental to existing tariffs imposed under various U.S. authorities and will expire one year after the country ceases importing Venezuelan oil or earlier if deemed appropriate by the Secretary of Commerce (White House, 2025).

Impact on Global Energy Markets

The tariff has prompted immediate reactions from major importers of Venezuelan crude. For instance, India’s Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refining complex and imports approximately 2 million barrels of Venezuelan oil monthly, has announced plans to halt purchases of Venezuelan crude in response to the new U.S. tariffs (Reuters, 2025).

Geopolitical Implications

The implementation of these tariffs introduces a novel trade tool referred to as “secondary tariffs,” which penalize countries engaging in commerce with targeted nations. This approach is designed to exert economic pressure on the Maduro regime by discouraging international purchases of Venezuelan oil (Bloomberg, 2025).

Alignment with the Atlantic Council’s Evolving Perspective

The Atlantic Council’s recent publications reflect a nuanced reassessment of the “America First” strategy in light of these developments. Geoff Ramsey’s March 25, 2025, article, “An ‘America First’ Approach to Venezuela Is Taking Shape,” examines the potential of the tariff strategy to extract concessions from Maduro’s government. Ramsey notes that previous U.S. sanctions had inadvertently pushed Venezuela closer to U.S. rivals such as China and Iran. The new tariffs aim to counter this trend by increasing economic pressure on countries that continue to import Venezuelan oil.

This evolving stance suggests a pragmatic acknowledgment of the complex geopolitical landscape and the need for adaptive strategies that balance economic pressure with diplomatic engagement.

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References

Golden, K. (2024, December 12). Chevron CEO Mike Wirth on what to expect on energy under the Trump administration. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/chevron-ceo-mike-wirth-on-what-to-expect-on-energy-under-the-trump-administration/

Labrador, R. C. (2023, March 8). There’s a more effective way forward than ‘maximum pressure’ for Venezuela. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/theres-a-more-effective-way-forward-than-maximum-pressure-for-venezuela/

Ramsey, G. (2025, March 25). An ‘America First’ approach to Venezuela is taking shape. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/an-america-first-approach-to-venezuela-is-taking-shape/

Tobin, W. (2025, January 22). ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/maximum-pressure-sanctions-on-venezuela-help-us-adversaries-hurt-venezuelans/

White House. (2025, March 24). Imposing tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan oil. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/imposing-tariffs-on-countries-importing-venezuelan-oil/

Reuters. (2025, March 26). India’s Reliance to stop buying Venezuelan oil over US tariffs, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-reliance-stop-buying-venezuelan-oil-over-us-tariffs-sources-say-2025-03-26/

Bloomberg. (2025, March 25). Trump’s threat of ‘secondary tariffs’ invents new trade tool. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/trump-s-threat-of-secondary-tariffs-invents-new-trade-weapon